Tom Goldstein, who has argued 25 cases before the U.S. Supreme Court, bucks conventional wisdom with his latest prediction regarding the High Court’s ObamaCare ruling tomorrow.
Over at SCOTUSblog, a site he co-founded, Goldstein writes:
[I]n the end, based on the entire mix of information I have, I think the mandate will not be struck down tomorrow. (Neither I, nor anyone else, has any inside information.) My prediction includes the possibility that there will not be a single majority opinion for the theory on which the mandate is upheld, and even the thin possibility that the Court will not have a majority to find the mandate constitutional.
As to the other major ObamaCare questions before the Court, Goldstein predicts:
Far less important, I expect the principal opinion will be written by the Chief Justice; a majority of the Court will find it has jurisdiction; and the challenge to the Medicaid expansion will be rejected.
Goldstein does acknowledge that most Supreme Court observers disagree with his prediction and that his own confidence in it “isn’t overwhelming.” Coming from such a well-respected and brilliant legal mind, Goldstein’s prediction isn’t reassuring either.
Here’s to hoping that Goldstein is misreading this one.