Freedom Line Blog

Even though there isn’t much hope of Republicans winning a majority in the U.S. Senate after the 2010 election, President Obama may have a few new conservative voices critiquing his administration. Of the four Republican candidates endorsed by the Senatorial Conservative Fund, the two most likely to get elected are running to replace moderate members of the GOP. But while replacing Kay Bailey Hutchison with Michael Williams would be an improvement for Texas conservatives looking for a more aggressive advocate, that scenario pales in comparison to the starkly different paths confronting Florida’s Republican primary voters.

In that race former Florida house speaker and Tea Party darling Marco Rubio just pulled even with Charlie Crist, the current Republican governor and a closet liberal. CFIF has previously covered the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s decision not to endorse in contested primaries. Now, it looks like that decision, coupled with Rubio’s successful linkage of Crist to Obama, is hurting the once front-running Crist. After Doug Hoffman’s narrow loss in the New York 23rd congressional special election, many pundits opined that conservatives like Rubio would be persona non grata in the GOP. Like everything else coming out of Washington these days, the “experts” were wrong about what Americans want.

Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman might end up winning the race for the upstate New York House seat that he supposedly lost last week.  Bill Owens, the Democrat, was sworn in last Saturday.

Apparently, Hoffman conceded based on inaccurate reports from his base in Oswego County and early returns.  As it turns out, Owens’ lead is down to 3,026 votes (from over 5,000 on Election Night), with still more than 10,200 absentee ballots at large.  The chances are slim, but if Speaker Pelosi hadn’t planned a health care vote for last Saturday night, this race might still be up in the air.

From the news report:

Now Hoffman, who campaigned against the health care reform bill, is carefully watching as the 23rd District race tightens and he is left to wonder if he conceded too soon.

“I don’t know if we would have conceded on election night,” Rob Ryan, Hoffman’s campaign spokesman, said Wednesday while discussing the latest results of the recanvassing. “I’m someone who doesn’t like to look back. But would we have taken longer to make a decision on election night? Probably, if we knew it was only 3,000 votes making the difference.”

Ryan, while acknowledging that Hoffman’s chances of pulling off a come-from-behind victory are still remote, said the campaign is looking at its legal options.

It looks like retired seniors aren’t the only New York-area residents making an impact in Florida this time of year. After upstate New Yorkers nearly pushed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman over the finish line last night, Republican leaders are taking note. One Miami New Times blogger suggests that conservative insurgent Marco Rubio may have a new hurdle to overcome in his quest for establishment credibility and access to GOP moneymen. The argument goes that party big-wigs are likely to be even stingier with their support after watching a red district go blue.

On the other hand, ABC News’ Rick Klein reports that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) will not be giving money to any candidate in an open, contested primary. Sorry, Charlie (Crist)! NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (R-TX) notes that in the aftermath of NY-23, “[t]here’s no incentive for us to weigh in.”

This is huge. Now there’s every incentive for the conservative grassroots to promote and resource Marco Rubio’s campaign, without the fear of being outspent and undercut by the national party. The big guys are saying ‘may the best man win’ in the Florida GOP primary. Game on!

No waffling, we were flat-out wrong about the possibility of Doug Hoffman winning the special congressional election in NY-23.  That rather significant part of the equation was a bridge too far, too fast, and we just got carried away by the effort, by the momentum (which was genuine) and by the weird dynamics of a race that behaved like a game of pinball rather than politics.

In the end, the Wicked Witch of the North, Dede Scozzafava was able to exact revenge by backing Democrat Bill Owens and drawing away enough votes to deny Hoffman the victory.  Regardless, her future is not going to be that of “a great leader,” Bill Owens’ appreciative words from one clueless backbench hack to another.  Owens will get his lapel pin and his year, during which we suspect he won’t become one of Nancy Pelosi’s acolytes.  No one could be that dumb.

For conservatism, however, the victory of shoving a dose of grassroots reality down the throats of Republican Party bosses cannot be underestimated.

As someone once said, “When the going gets tough, the tough get going.”  Now, who’s paying attention to the Florida Senate race?

When Doug Hoffman wins the special election for NY-23 tomorrow, as he now seems poised to do, much will be written about what that means, and much of that will be meaningless.

What won’t get that much attention is that Hoffman is the candidate of New York’s scrappy Conservative Party, founded in 1962, with the support of William F. Buckley, Jr.  Buckley became the Party’s candidate for New York City mayor in 1965, losing as he knew he would, but with great wit and that wonderful twinkle in his eye.

The Party, with its own ballot line, is a political force, for decades under the savvy, never-blinking, steadfastly conservative leadership of Mike Long.  Hoffman’s win will be a rare, single line victory, but that diminishes not at all the influence New York’s Conservative Party has been able to wield over politics even in New York’s liberal wilderness, now aided mightily by the Tea Party brigades.

Have a party tomorrow night, Mike.  You and a Conservative Party worthy of the name deserve it.

For readers following the race in New York’s 23rd congressional district (upstate NY), the Club for Growth has released a new poll showing conservative candidate Doug Hoffman leading by four points.

Hoffman, with 31.3% in the poll, leads Democrat Bill Owens (27%) and Republican challenger Dede Scozzafava (19.7%).

This race in rural upstate New York has garnered national attention and endorsements from prominent conservatives.  Newt Gingrich has endorsed Scozzafava, while Sarah Palin and Dick Armey have endorsed Hoffman.

More info here and here.