Freedom Line Blog

Gallup is out with its new presidential polling numbers today. The results are dismal for President Obama. Only 16 states and the District of Columbia show the Commander-in-Chief with an approval rating over 50 percent.

Of course, we have to insert the normal caveats: we’re still more than a year away from the 2012 presidential election and it’s how Obama runs against his Republican opponent — not how he performs in a vacuum — that will determine his ultimate fate at the polls.

That being said, what’s most interesting about the new polls is their implications for next year’s electoral college. Crunching the numbers, RealClearPolitics’  Tom Bevan finds that the states giving Obama an approval rating of 51 % or higher have a total of 166 electoral votes between them; states at 49 % or lower have a total of 320 (270 are required to win a presidential election).

Digging deeper into the math only makes the picture more dismal for the White House. Bevan calculates that even adding states where Obama’s approval is at 49-50% (Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Rhode Island, Washington, and Wisconsin, respectively) only gets him to 218 electoral votes — 52 shy of the total needed for victory.

Does this make Obama’s defeat inevitable? Not by a long shot. But it means that the president is in for a very steep climb over the next 15 months. Let the games begin.

Dig

A new Gallup poll previews “Nightmare on Nancy’s Street” for the upcoming midterm elections.

Several excerpts: 

A record-low percentage of U.S. voters – 28% — say most members of Congress deserve to be re-elected.  The previous low was 29% in October 1992.”

Additionally, 65% of registered voters – the highest in Gallup history, and by far the highest in any recent midterm year – now say most members of Congress do not deserve re-election.”

Voters anti-incumbent mood is like nothing Gallup has seen in the past four midterm election cycles.  While that could have a negative impact on incumbents from both parties, the greater exposure of the Democrats by virtue of their majority status means greater risk for their candidates.”

So here’s our question:  If you are a Democrat Congressperp and voted for ObamaCare, Stimulus I through XXIII, Bailouts, Cap and Trade and the Kick Your Constituents’ Dog Bill, would you go near your doctor’s office…your bank…your service station…or even that proverbial Main Street, USA?