{"id":21321,"date":"2014-08-18T09:46:37","date_gmt":"2014-08-18T13:46:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/?p=21321"},"modified":"2014-08-18T09:50:11","modified_gmt":"2014-08-18T13:50:11","slug":"hillary-inevitable-in-2016-this-number-says-not-so-fast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/21321\/hillary-inevitable-in-2016-this-number-says-not-so-fast\/","title":{"rendered":"Hillary Inevitable in 2016? These Numbers Say “Not So Fast”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Since World War II, only one president has been so successful, his party’s brand name so enhanced during his two presidential terms, that his party’s subsequent nominee won a third consecutive presidency for his party:\u00a0 Ronald Reagan.<\/p>\n

According to the old adage, although history doesn’t always repeat itself, it does tend to rhyme.\u00a0 Accordingly, that speaks to the steep uphill battle that the Democratic Party faces in winning the 2016 presidential election.\u00a0 On that note, this morning’s commentary from Bill Kristol <\/a>highlights a numerical headwind facing Hillary Clinton, whom some consider “inevitable” in 2016 (just as she supposedly was in 2008):<\/p>\n

Speaking of 2016, the NBC News\/Wall Street Journal poll this summer had a couple of interesting findings on the question<\/span> of who might be our next president.\u00a0 The good news is that while 38 percent of respondents say they ‘probably’ or ‘almost certainly’ will vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 37 percent say they ‘definitely’ will not<\/em> vote for her.\u00a0 This means that Clinton, the candidate with by far the highest name recognition and the longest r\u00e9sum\u00e9, starts off at about 50-50.\u00a0 And while her approval numbers remain decent, they’re falling: \u00a0 Today, 44 percent view her positively against 37 percent negatively. \u00a0 Those numbers were once 48 percent positive, and only 32 percent negative.<\/p>\n

By contrast, in the sixth year of the Bush administration, John McCain, the frontrunner and eventual nominee<\/span> of the party in power, had a favorable rating in the mid-50s and an unfavorable number in the mid-20s.\u00a0 And of course he lost.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Barack Obama is no Ronald Reagan by any meaningful measure, and there’s a reason that Hillary’s “inevitability” evaporated in 2008.\u00a0 These numbers suggest that the “inevitability” narrative may prove just as ephemeral in 2016.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Since World War II, only one president has been so successful, his party’s brand name so enhanced during his two presidential terms, that his party’s subsequent nominee won a third consecutive presidency for his party:\u00a0 Ronald Reagan. According to the old adage, although history doesn’t always repeat itself, it does tend to rhyme.\u00a0 Accordingly, that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[3887,118],"class_list":["post-21321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-posts","tag-3887","tag-hillary-clinton"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21321"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21321\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21325,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21321\/revisions\/21325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}