{"id":2580,"date":"2009-12-09T18:01:57","date_gmt":"2009-12-09T23:01:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/?p=2580"},"modified":"2009-12-09T23:13:43","modified_gmt":"2009-12-10T04:13:43","slug":"the-cbo-fuzzy-economic-forecasting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/2580\/the-cbo-fuzzy-economic-forecasting\/","title":{"rendered":"The CBO & Fuzzy Economic Forecasting"},"content":{"rendered":"

As this piece from Reason<\/em><\/a> explains, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is pretty much the final word on whether a bill is perceived as saving money, costing money, or having no fiscal effect. By most accounts, the CBO is staffed by competent people making the most objective calculations possible. The problem is, what\u2019s possible?<\/p>\n

The question goes to the heart of the dispute between central planners and free market types. While the former thinks that the intricacies of human behavior can be predicted (and influenced) with the right data and formulas, the latter can\u2019t help but see the endeavor as nothing more than chasing after an economic Bigfoot. For all its sophistication, the CBO is still bedeviled by the criticism that it simply doesn\u2019t know enough information to render any kind of economic certainty.<\/p>\n

These days, CBO analysts are scoring bills using intricate computer simulations based in large part on survey data. The raw information is interpreted through academic research on how human beings respond to various economic assumptions. In an interview with The Washington Post, the CBO\u2019s chief health care analyst, Phil Ellis, compared the process to playing Sim City, a computer game that simulates urban development. But even the best model is still only as good as its input data. And for policies that have no real-world antecedent, it\u2019s extremely difficult to come up with accurate input data.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In fact, it may be impossible. But that doesn\u2019t really matter to the Democrats pushing health care \u201creform.\u201d As long as they can get the non-partisan CBO to score their proposals as saving money \u2013 no matter how unreliable the data \u2013 their primary purpose of expanding coverage is served. Make no mistake; liberals are pushing universal \u2013 not cost effective \u2013 health care. Like their Soviet-era predecessors, today\u2019s central planners can\u2019t predict the future, no matter how much survey data they throw at the forecasters working at the CBO. That certainly won’t stop them from trying though.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As this piece from Reason explains, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is pretty much the final word on whether a bill is perceived as saving money, costing money, or having no fiscal effect. By most accounts, the CBO is staffed by competent people making the most objective calculations possible. The problem is, what\u2019s possible? The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[440,465,623],"class_list":["post-2580","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-posts","tag-cbo","tag-health-care-reform","tag-sim-city"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2580","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2580"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2580\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2586,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2580\/revisions\/2586"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2580"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2580"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cfif.org\/v\/freedom_line_blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2580"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}