With the midterm elections nearing, Democrats are surging ahead in the polls, offering rhetoric about a "failed Republican economy." But the facts show that the first two years of Republican control have produced impressive economic gains, especially for minorities, women and workers on the bottom rungs of the economic ladder.

It's not the economy, stupid, that's souring Americans on the GOP. It's energy prices, which are causing pain at the pump and making voters, even Republicans, bristle under GOP leadership. To turn the midterm races around, the Republican Party has to make the strong case that pain at the pump is worth it to subdue a nuclear-ambitious Iran, whose leaders have chanted "Death to America" for 47 years.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) claims people are "drowning in Donald Trump's failed economy," adding that "they can't thrive and can barely survive."

Let's roll out the data from the impartial U.S. Census Bureau that prove these are lies. Median income rose to a new high in 2025, $87,138. The biggest beneficiaries of the 2025 surge were minorities, women and workers at the bottom rungs of the economic ladder. Hispanic, Black and child poverty rates hit all-time lows, while earnings for those in the bottom 25% of the economy rose. Adding a dose of hyperbole, Trump presidential adviser Steve Moore calls 2025 "a miracle year."

In 2025, GOP policies also narrowed the pay gap between women and men to the smallest yet, and women captured virtually all the year's employment gains. (Try telling this to women voters, who overwhelmingly favor Democrats.)

Despite these undeniable gains, voters are rapidly shifting trust to Democrats to handle the economy. In the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, voters trusted Democrats over Republicans 42% to 34%. It's the major reason Democrats are predicted to take the House and possibly the Senate.

What explains this disconnect between impressive economic gains and plummeting poll numbers on Trump's handling of the economy? First, a drumbeat of Democratic statements parroting the same message: Americans are "drowning."

Polls reveal that voters say their own economic situation is good, but they are being convinced by this rhetoric that other people are not doing well. A Navigator Research poll in August of voters in the Midwest swing states, who are being pummeled with TV and social media ads against the GOP economy, found that 63% rated their own financial situation good or excellent, but 65% rated the national economy negatively. Voters' shifting attitudes about the economy are the result of deceptive political ads, not reality.

Second, the lasting and painful impact of Bidenflation. Inflation for the 12 months ending August 2026 was miniscule, averaging 3% for all goods and services except energy. But in the first two years of the Biden administration, inflation had soared to 9%, and the Biden-era prices are still up there. Curbing inflation doesn't lower prices, it just halts the increase. It will take time for wages to catch up, even in a dynamic economy. Until then, shopping for groceries will still be painful.

Third, gas prices are soaring. Iran's effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil is exported, pushed gas to $4.48 on average at the pump as of Monday. Ouch.

Even some Republican candidates are losing fortitude. Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers posted on X, "The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly. When it does, energy costs will plummet." The Iranian mullahs are loving it.

The administration needs to make the case to these weak-kneed candidates and to the nation that defeating Iran's nuclear ambitions is essential for the safety of the world and the security of the U.S.

Gas supplies were also interrupted during World War II. But the public didn't beg Franklin Roosevelt to stop fighting. The real burden on the public then was not high prices but extreme rationing. Civilians were given stickers for their vehicles, allotting them a small amount of fuel, strictly for essential errands or to drive to work at a war plant. Almost no one complained. Austerity was a patriotic duty to defeat the enemy. Carpooling was encouraged, and posters announced that "When you ride alone, you ride with Hitler."

That was the greatest generation. But there's greatness in America even today.

If Republicans lose control of Congress, it will not be because of a bad economy. Blame inept, soulless messaging. Republican candidates and the president need to present the facts and ask voters to rise to the occasion.

The Trump administration needs to sell the public on why the price of gas is high and start talking about the price of freedom. Urge the public to sacrifice for victory against a nation determined to destroy us.

Betsy McCaughey is a former Lt. Governor of New York State and Chairman & Founder of the Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths at www.hospitalinfection.org. 

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