Commentary

Why the CBO Almost Always Gets It Wrong

By Stephen Moore
Tuesday, June 10 2025

These days it seems that a mysterious group called "the CBO" rules the world, or at least Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, it's not very good at predicting things, and its bad calls can lead to bad policy results. The Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation predict what will happen with spending, tax revenues and deficits from new bills and congressional budgets. They have made headlines with their absurd warning that the Trump tax bill to extend the 2017 tax cuts and other reforms like eliminating taxes on tips would add trillions to the debt over 10 years.…

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