MEMORANDUM

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Tony Fabrizio

RE: Massachusetts Election Night Survey

DATE: January 19, 2010

Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates completed a survey of 800 voters who voted in today's U.S. Senate election statewide in Massachusetts. What follows are the key findings:

• Health Care was the TOP issue in this race and voters were voting AGAINST the Obama health care plan

» Unprompted, fully 48% of voters say that health care was THE issue deciding their vote today. When combined with their second choice issue, health care mentions reached 62%

» Brown's health care position/opposition to Obama health care plan was the TOP reason for voting for him by wide margin

» Plurality of voters said their vote was a vote to STOP the President's health care plan - more than those saying it was a vote against his policies in general

» Majority of these voters OPPOSE President's health care plan AND disapprove of the job he's doing on health care

• Plurality of Brown voters said their vote was meant to send a message to Washington - not a vote for Brown's candidacy
  
   
• Voters desire to send a message was so strong, Brown is elected despite President's higher than average image and job approval ratings and dismal job ratings for Congressional Republicans
  
   
• Brown scored big with Independents and even edged Coakley with Union Households
  
   
• Tea Party Movement gets mixed reviews, but Brown got overwhelming majority among its supporters
  
   
• Despite Brown's victory, GOP shouldn't start dancing yet as their Congressional job approval is still dismal among Independents

Key Findings and Data:

• Health Care was the TOP issue in this race and voters were voting AGAINST the Obama health care plan

» Unprompted, fully 48% of voters say that health care was THE issue deciding their vote today. When combined with their second choice issue, health care mentions reached 62%

• It was far and away the TOP choice across party lines

"What SINGLE issue ABOVE ALL OTHERS helped decide your vote in this Senate Race today?"

COMBO FIRST/SECOND CHOICE:

"And if there was a SECOND issue that helped decide your vote today, what was it?"

» Brown's health care position/opposition to Obama health care plan was the TOP reason for voting for him by wide margin

• Interestingly, it was the top reason even among Democrats and Independents who voted for Brown too

"What was the MOST important reason why you voted FOR Scott Brown today?"

» Plurality of voters said their vote was a vote to STOP the President's health care plan - more than those saying it was a vote against his policies in general

• A clear majority of Independents said they voted to STOP the health care plan

"Now more specifically, would you say that your vote in today's election for Senate was…"

"Would you say that your vote in today's election for Senate was…(READ ALL AND ROTATE 1-2, 3 Always Last )"

» Majority of these voters OPPOSE President's health care plan AND disapprove of the job he's doing on health care

• Independents oppose the plan by nearly 2 to 1 and disapprove of the President's job on health care at a similar level

"Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose President Obama's health care plan currently being considered by Congress?"

Obama Job Approval on Health Care Reform:

• Plurality of Brown voters said their vote was meant to send a message to Washington - not a vote for Brown's candidacy

• Half of both Democrats and Independents who voted for Brown say their vote was meant to send a message

"Which of the following BEST describes your vote today? Would you say it was…"

• Voters desire to send a message was so strong, Brown is elected despite President's higher than average image and job approval ratings and dismal job ratings for Congressional Republicans

• Despite lower scores among Independents, the President still outscores the GOP in Congress by a wide margin

Obama Image:

Obama Job Approval:

Congressional Republicans Job Approval:

• Brown scored big with Independents and even edged Coakley with Union Households

• Brown won Independents by a 2 to 1 margin and captured 1 in 5 Democrat votes

"And which candidate did you vote for today?"

• Tea Party Movement gets mixed reviews, but Brown got overwhelming majority among its supporters

• Large base of support for Tea Party movement among GOP
• Independents support Tea Party by 3 to 2 margin
• Tea Party supporters deliver 79 point margin for Brown

"Based on what you know about the Tea Party movement, do you consider yourself to be (ROTATE) a supporter or an opponent of the Tea Party movement? If you have never heard of the Tea Party movement, just say so."

"And which candidate did you vote for today?"

• Despite Brown's victory, GOP shouldn't start dancing yet as their Congressional job approval is still dismal among Independents

Congressional Republicans Job Approval:

Survey Methodology

This survey of 800 special election voters in the state of Massachusetts was conducted on the evening of January 19, 2010. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professionally trained interviewers using computer-assisted interviewing technology (CATI). Respondent selection was random within pre-determined geographic units utilizing a sample frame that represents actual voter registration and turnout throughout the state. The survey of 800 special election voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.46% at the 95% confidence interval.

Key Demographics: