After a year with less turnover than any president in at least two generations, there's a blunt and obvious question: Are there any Cabinet members who need to go?

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Nearly a month into his second year in office, President Trump's Cabinet has been remarkably stable. No Cabinet member has quit, been fired, pushed out or otherwise left the building. The question is whether that is a good thing. A president does not want to let his political enemies hound his top Cabinet officials out of office. On the other hand, by the end of an administration's first year, it's usually clear that one, or two or more of the president's Cabinet just aren't working out. That is the issue confronting Trump today.

Compare the situation to Trump's first term. There was a lot of movement, for a variety of reasons. First to leave was White House chief of staff Reince Priebus, who resigned on July 28, 2017, six months into the administration. Then Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly resigned on July 31 to become the new White House chief of staff. Then, on Sept. 29, 2017, Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price quit under pressure over spending public money on private travel. 

On March 13, 2018, one year and nearly two months into the administration, Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. On March 28, 2018, Trump fired Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin over Shulkin's use of public funds for a European trip. On April 26, 2018, CIA Director Mike Pompeo left to become the new Secretary of State. On July 5, 2018, Environmental Protection Agency administrator Scott Pruitt resigned while under several investigations. And on Nov. 7, 2018, Attorney General Jeff Sessions was pushed out over Trump's anger about the appointment of a special counsel in the Russia collusion matter.

None of this was terribly unusual. Trump's first-year turnover was very similar to the first-year changes in the Cabinets of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. (George W. Bush had little change in his first term.) Trump had more second-year changes than those predecessors, but still, all administrations have had significant Cabinet-level changes in nearly every year.

So what about Trump now? After a year with less turnover than any president in at least two generations, there's a blunt and obvious question: Are there any Cabinet members who need to go?

Don't look for any definitive answers here. Some would say DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. Some would say Attorney General Pam Bondi. Others point to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and others.

Some of Trump's supporters want to see no changes at all. Of those who would like to see the president move things around, Noem is probably the name most mentioned. That's especially true after a Wall Street Journal article alleging all sorts of unhappiness with her work inside DHS, including rumors concerning her top aide, Corey Lewandowski.

Returning to Washington on Monday, Trump was asked about the Noem situation. This is from a White House pool report: "The president declined to weigh in on allegations about the nature of Secretary Kristi Noem and her aide Corey Lewandowski's relationship, or whether [Trump] wants Noem to remain in her position for long. He said he didn't know about the allegations but would 'find out about it.'"

That's not exactly a full-throated vote of confidence. Still, the problem for Trump in dealing with Noem is the same problem he would face with removing any other Cabinet official. Doing so would undoubtedly give Democrats a burst of energy and make them resolve to keep up and intensify their attacks on the president and his Cabinet. Trump's adversaries would have a scalp, and that would make them want another one, and another, and so on. It's just human nature, and it is also an iron rule of politics.

But Cabinet turnover is also a rule in politics. And everyone in Trump's Cabinet has already outlived a number of predecessors who served in Trump's first administration. Change is coming.

Byron York is chief political correspondent for The Washington Examiner.

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