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The years remaining in Obama’s presidency allow him an opportunity for redemption. Should he miss that chance, however, history’s verdict will not be kind.
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| If a classified ad ran for the presidency of the United States, any serious applicant could be considered a ripe prospect for involuntary commitment.
To attain the office, you have to campaign for nearly two years straight, jockeying all the while against a handful of the most talented citizens in the nation. You then have to inspire financial donations at a level tantamount to the GDP of a Caribbean nation, win the majority approval of a haltingly heterodox populace, keep 20-hour work days under a relentless media glare without committing a major gaffe and manage an alchemy of folksiness and gravitas sufficient to convince the nation that you’re trustworthy enough to both babysit their children and command the most powerful nation in the history of the planet.
Should you win, you’ll endure scorn for every deficiency facing the nation, take the job with you during every waking moment and see every aspect of your life become fodder for the pop psychology of undereducated, overcoiffed pundits.
In this maelstrom, presidents – for whom steady adversity is a standard feature, not a bug – often seek solace in the promise that “History” will render ultimate judgment upon them. Yet as Oscar Wilde said, “When the gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers.”
Though only 43 men have occupied the American presidency, a typical American can summon to mind only a half dozen or so who predate his lifetime. For most commanders-in-chief, history has little to say. And that’s the sort of fact that keeps a president staring at his bedroom ceiling at night.
Spending the winter of his discontent grasping at the hope he once thought he embodied, Barack Obama seems to be flirting with the prospect of historical vindication. Sympathetic members of the intelligentsia and the Beltway establishment, finding no silver lining in the cloud currently hanging over the White House, still mention the “historic nature” of his presidency. Obama has even flirted with the notion aloud, telling Diane Sawyer that he’d rather be “a really good one-term president” than a “mediocre two-term president.” Unfortunately for him, the former phrase is virtually always oxymoronic.
Yet the case for Obama’s historical relevance is thus far gossamer thin. First, there’s the problem of insufficient data.
At the corresponding point in the Clinton Administration, there had been no Oklahoma City bombing, no government shutdown, no welfare reform, no Lewinsky scandal, no operation in Kosovo and no balanced budgets.
At the same point in the Bush Administration, there had been no Iraq war, no Hurricane Katrina, no push for Social Security and immigration reform and no financial crisis.
Knowing where the Obama Administration’s historical record is headed before it has hit year three is about as plausible as knowing what “Rosebud” means half an hour into “Citizen Kane.”
But an even bigger problem arises for those who wish to make the case that Obama’s early accomplishments are enough to secure his place in the pantheon of great presidents. In reality, only Obama’s stature as the nation’s first African-American chief executive can bear such a claim. And while this is a deeply significant achievement, it’s one that has no bearing on his performance in office.
Turning to the Obama record, the case becomes exceedingly murky. There’s no question that Obama’s healthcare reform places him alongside Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson, both celebrated as liberal activists because of their ability to enact new entitlement programs (it’s an unfortunate reality of the modern historian’s craft that “activist” and “successful” are synonyms when describing a president). But if ObamaCare is repealed in the coming years, it will be even more historic – the first time that a major entitlement has been scrapped. And with health care reform gone, all Obama will have to show for his tenure in office thus far is a failed stimulus package and a financial reform bill of trifling historical consequence.
Indeed, the public revolt against ObamaCare reveals what may become the most historically salient fact of Obama’s presidency: the dashing of expectations. Never before has such a massive social program been enacted against such vigorous public opposition. Never has a president met with such sprawling goodwill at his inauguration fallen so far so fast. Never since 1938 has a president been so decisively rebuffed in midterm elections. And never has popular infatuation with a political figure morphed into contempt at such a fevered pace.
The years remaining in Obama’s presidency allow him an opportunity for redemption. Should he miss that chance, however, history’s verdict will not be kind. Obama will be remembered as a failure … if he is remembered for anything beyond his inauguration.
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