Of 33 Senate seats subject to election in November 2012, 23 are either held by Democrats or Independents who caucus with the Democrats (Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont). In contrast, only 10 seats held by Republicans will be contested in 2012.

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Get ready for even more conservative victories in 2012 – and that doesn’t include the presidential race. 

Despite enormous conservative successes this week, some were understandably disappointed by the electoral survival of such unsavory buffoons as Harry “This War Is Lost” Reid and Barbara “Call Me Senator” Boxer.  For such conservatives, however, the 2012 Senate and House races provide even more reason for optimism than 2010. 

The primary reasons?  In the Senate, Democrats must defend more than twice as many seats as Republicans.  And in the House, Congressional redistricting following the 2010 census could shift even more seats from blue to red. 

Of 33 Senate seats subject to election in November 2012, 23 are either held by Democrats or Independents who caucus with the Democrats (Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont).  In contrast, only 10 seats held by Republicans will be contested in 2012. 

Even more troubling for Democrats, many of the 23 Senate seats they must defend are located in red states or were won by extremely thin margins in 2006 despite the fact that it was an extremely favorable year to their party.  In deep-red Nebraska, for instance, Senator Ben Nelson must survive after voting in favor of ObamaCare following the shameful “Cornhusker Kickback.”  In Missouri, which voted for John McCain in 2008 and just elected Republican Roy Blunt to the Senate by a 54% to 41% margin, Claire McCaskill squeaked by in 2006 with just 49.6% of votes cast.  And in Virginia, which elected rising Republican star Bob McDonnell as Governor last year, James Webb won in 2006 by a razor-thin 0.6% following George Allen’s “macaca” comment. 

Similarly, in conservative Montana, Senator Jon Tester won by less than 1% in 2006 against a Republican opponent connected to the Jack Abramoff scandal.  In next-door North Dakota, Kent Conrad must run for reelection in 2012 despite a record of consistently voting with the Obama agenda.  Other Democratic Senators who must survive in 2012 include Florida’s Bill Nelson, Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, New Mexico’s Jeff Bingaman, Michigan’s Debbie Stabenow, Washington’s Maria Cantwell, Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar, New Jersey’s Robert Menendez and Wisconsin’s Herb Kohl.  Each of those states have very recently elected Republican governors or Senators. 

In California, Diane Feinstein will be 79 years old in 2012, and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin will find himself in hot water if he deviates from the remarkably conservative stances that enabled him to win this week. 

Republicans, on the other hand, face a much easier time defending their ten Senate seats in 2012.  First, those Senators were strong enough to win despite the fact that 2006 was an extremely difficult year for Republicans.  But consider the states in which those ten seats are situated.  There is Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas, Jon Kyl in Arizona, Roger Wicker in Mississippi, John Barrasso in Wyoming, Bob Corker in Tennessee, Orrin Hatch in Utah, Richard Lugar in Indiana, John Ensign in Nevada, Olympia Snow in Maine and Scott Brown in Massachusetts.  Of those, only Snowe and Brown run in states won by Obama in 2008, but Snowe won in 2006 with 73% of the vote and Scott Brown recently logged a 63% approval rating. 

Over in the House, conservatives obviously cannot expect the sort of 65-seat pickup that we witnessed this week.  Nevertheless, the 2010 census and state-level victories this week might provide additional gains. 

Due to population shifts resulting from this year’s census, there are 18 states that will gain or lose House seats and must redistrict accordingly.  Many of those states place control of redistricting in the hands of their legislatures and governors, and this week’s elections shifted more states to Republican control than any time since the 1920s. 

According to Americans for Tax Reform tabulations, heading into this week’s elections, Democrats controlled both legislative chambers in 27 states, and Republicans controlled both chambers in only 14.  Today, Republicans control both chambers in 24 states, Democrats control both chambers in 19, legislative houses are split in 6 and Nebraska has a single chamber.  Additionally, in the 18 states that will either gain or lose House seats following the census, Republicans now control majorities in 10, with another 2 using nonpartisan processes to draw districts.  Finally, states like Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Arizona that will gain or lose House seats also reelected Republican governors. 

That translates to more GOP House gains in 2012. 

It’s impossible, of course, to predict with certainty the prevailing political zeitgeist come November 2012.  After all, anyone who had predicted in 2008 that Republicans would capture Barack Obama’s own vacated Illinois Senate seat would’ve been involuntarily committed. 

Based upon the numbers alone, however, the self-described “shellacking” that Obama suffered this week is likely to be even worse in two years.  Of course, he may be one of those shellacked, relieving him of any further concern.