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June 28th, 2012 3:44 pm
John Roberts’ Contortions

I discuss this bizarre decision here.

I further note that I was almost right in my final prediction, below.

Especially: “ I think this is going to be one of those horribly fractured decisions where observers have trouble making heads or tails of everything. I think there may even be concurrent pluralities rather than a simple majority on at least a couple of the questions presented to the court. In the end, though, I do — yes, I do — expect the mandate in this particular form, applied in this particular way, to be adjudged at least partially unconstitutional.”

Indeed, the MANDATE was found unconstitutional, but the penalty it carried, treated as a tax, was not. And on the Medicaid issue, there were indeed shifting pluralities rather than a single majority. So I was right on the style of the opinion — although not on the substance of just how the court would find a way to muck it up beyond ordinary understanding.

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