Freedom Line Blog

With news of the retirement of moderate Democratic Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana dominating electoral soothsaying this week, some other important numbers are getting lost in the shuffle.

At the same time as Bayh’s decision to pursue greener pastures leaves his seat ripe for Republican picking, two West Coast Democrats are finding themselves vulnerable in a way they never imagined.

California’s liberal firebrand Barbara Boxer — a woman too far to the left for even the Golden State — is holding on to very narrow leads in potential contests against moderates Tom Campell and Carly Fiorina or conservative Chuck Devore (what may be most notable is how little difference the Republican nominee makes to the numbers).

Meanwhile, up the coast in Washington, one of the few Democratic incumbents assumed safe this year has received an ominous warning sign. Senator Patty Murray boasts double-digit leads over every Republican that has actually declared against her, but Dino Rossi — the former state senator who has been the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee in the Evergreen State’s last two cycles — actually outpolls Murray by two points. Rossi is said to still be planning on sitting out the race, but in this atmosphere that’s a miscalculation for both his career and his party’s future. Any Republican who passes on a chance for a competitive seat in this year’s environment needs to seek a career in something other than professional politics.

With two of the West Coast’s liberal safe-havens suddenly looking vulnerable and Bayh’s seat seemingly vanishing into thin air, the question has to be asked: how many more surprises can Democrats take before the 2010 Senate elections begin to look entirely hopeless?