Posts Tagged ‘generic ballot’
August 31st, 2010 at 4:22 pm
The Obama Effect: GOP Achieves Widest Lead Ever on Generic Ballot
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During the national debate over ObamaCare earlier this year, President Obama attempted to soothe Congressional Democrats worried about their reelection prospects by proclaiming an enormous difference between November 1994 and November 2010.  In his ever-humble words, Obama assured them, “you’ve got me.”

Replace “you” with “they,” and Obama had it just about right.

Today, even The Washington Post acknowledged that Republicans have achieved their largest lead ever on Gallup’s generic Congressional ballot (which asks respondents which party they support generally).  According to Gallup, 51% of registered voters support Republicans, whereas 41% support Democrats.  That marks the widest GOP margin in the history of Gallup’s generic polling, which began in 1942.  By comparison, 1994 and 2002, years in which Republicans achieved substantial gains, the margin was only 5%.  Even more ominously for Obama and Democrats, Gallup polled registered voters, as opposed to “likely voters.”  This is a year in which Republicans and their supporters are much more motivated to vote, meaning that the electoral margin is probably even wider.

How ironic that Republicans are now the ones assuring themselves, “we’ve got Obama.”

July 31st, 2010 at 9:44 am
New Poll Indicates GOP May Need to Work for Its Midterm Wins

Respected campaign prognosticator Charlie Cook is out this morning with an analysis of recent poll numbers that is sure to get Republican poobahs hitting their consultants’ speed dials.

For the four previous weeks, the two parties were tied at 46 percent on the generic ballot question. For the four weeks before that, Republicans averaged a 3-point lead, 48 percent to 45 percent. So, if Democrats really have turned up the heat and are running 4 or 5 points ahead among registered voters, the practical result would be about an even proposition among likely midterm voters and the national popular vote. If that were true, it would mean a very, very close contest for control of the House.

One of the obvious explanations for the “tie” in approval/disapproval for the two major parties is the public’s lack of faith in either the Democrats or Republicans to prioritize issues correctly and enact laws consistent with meeting those priorities.  Point in case is the economy.  Democrats continue to pass laws that keep the private sector on the defensive, while Republicans seem content to ride the voters’ frustration to victory.

People want an alternative to what’s going on in Washington, D.C. right now, and groups like Freedom Works are organizing massive demonstrations to make everyday Americans’ voices heard.  As CFIF Senior Fellow Troy Senik pointed out recently, if the GOP wants to break through the politics-as-usual noise it must adopt a program for governing that aligns with the country’s current mood.

There’s still time, but not much.