Posts Tagged ‘Nate Silver’
August 10th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Romney Should be Worried, But Not Panicked

So says Nate Silver, in this bit of superb analysis.

Also via Silver, Bob McDonnell gets a huge boost, and Tim Pawlenty a HUGE downer, from this analysis. (I discount the Portman boost also in here, because this measures ONLY home-state effects of the Veep choice. My contention is that Portman helps at home, but hurts EVERYwhere else, at least a little, because of the combo of his multiple Bush ties and because of his wealthy son of wealthy son status. For that matter, I also give bonus points to Christie and Jindal for NON-home-state effects: I think Christie helps across the Rust Belt on style points alone — and perhaps especially in Pennsylvania, because it shares some media markets with New Jersey, plus can take the fight to Obama in what has turned into the vilest, most vicious race in history — while Jindal helps thematically by allowing Romney to better make the election a referendum on ObamaCare, because Jindal can offer and explain positive alternatives to it.)

The other guy who I’ve touted all along among my top five picks is Pat Toomey. It baffles me that he hasn’t gotten more attention. Silver’s analysis (see his very last chart) shows Toomey quite high among all the possibilities in terms of the actual likelihood that his choice alone could swing the election. He also risks almost no down-side, and his balanced-budget plan doesn’t risk anything that could be demagogued as “slashing” Social Security and Medicare.

Food for thought!