Freedom Line Blog

At the Freedom Works get-out-the-vote event last Friday night, several conservative luminaries inspired the audience with their speeches.  Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann (R-MN), Freedom Works chairman Dick Armey and pastor-turned-Tea Party activist C. L. Bryant delivered rousing red meat remarks.

The show stealers, though, were two congressional candidates vying to become part of the freshman class of 2010.  Charles Lollar is a Maryland businessman, Major in the Marine Corps Reserves and Republican nominee to challenge House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD).  Lollar’s easy smile and personable air are making him a rising star in GOP circles, even if he fails to unseat the multi-term incumbent.

Morgan Philpot is another candidate to watch.  A former member of the Utah legislature, Philpot is known for holding a copy of the U.S. Constitution in one hand and the Communist Manifesto in the other on the floor of the Utah House of Representatives.  Before voting on a bill he asks his colleagues to which of the two documents the proposed bill moves the Utah body politic.

CFIF will be keeping an eye on these two candidates in the run-up to the November midterm elections.  Check back for updates.

It’s always great to see conventional wisdom types baffled when someone shuns their advice and proves successful anyway.  This week’s example is Sarah Palin, the political icon who continues to irk the government-media establishment by endorsing people she thinks should govern – not those whom others think should win.

No other likely 2012 GOP presidential candidate has been as outspoken in endorsing 2010 candidates.  True, Palin doesn’t always taste victory (see Washington state’s Clint Didier), but she wins way more than she loses.    According to Time, she’s 8-3 this cycle.  Even more impressive that record was made in 11 tightly contested races where many of Palin’s endorsements went to underfunded long-shots.

Time will tell if Sarah Palin can muster enough support to win the GOP presidential nomination, and after it, the presidency.  But for now, she is the unquestioned difference maker in tight GOP races.  Come 2012, there will quite a few people owing her their support.

As discussed in this week’s Liberty Update, the next great wave of Tea Party enthusiasm needs to wash over local political offices as soon as this year’s federal midterm elections conclude.  A column in the St. Petersburg Times notes that several of Florida’s highest profile Tea Party candidates are mounting what looks to be losing campaigns in the run-up to next Tuesday’s statewide primary elections.

The reason is simple: it’s just too hard to compete for votes and money when running against candidates from the two established parties.  Far better, the columnist suggests, to turn the Tea Party’s attention to city and county races where much of the real world of governing takes place.

Mike Alexander and the Pasadena (CA) Patriots couldn’t agree more.  Like Mike’s wife Patricia likes to say, “Starting at 6 a.m. on November 3^rd, we are going to focus on all the municipal elections here in Los Angeles County: county supervisor, city council, school board, you name it.”  Tea Party enthusiasts would do well to check out Alexander’s TEA PAC organization for ideas on how to turn activist energy into winning elections.

Former NFL player and third place U.S. Senate candidate Clint Didier isn’t ready to ask his fellow Tea Party members to back Republican nominee Dino Rossi.  After a closed door session with Rossi, Didier emerged unconvinced that Rossi – a two-time Washington gubernatorial runner-up – is committed to any specific policy positions.

One could make the argument that Didier’s explicit positions on spending, taxes and abortion contributed to his distant third place finish in the recently concluded primary.  It’s also conventional wisdom that Tea Party members are more likely to vote for a Republican than a Democrat if given the choice.

But that assumes that Tea Party members think that that must vote for either of the two remaining candidates; in this case Rossi or incumbent Senator Patty Murray (D-WA).  That’s a false assumption.  Many Tea Party members are active in the movement precisely because they think conventional Republicans like Rossi can’t be trusted.  If Rossi fails to woo a majority of Didier’s supporters, this November will be his third – and likely last – statewide defeat.  The Tea Party will just stay home.

As Didier points out, he’s not trying to back Rossi into a corner, but rather deliver him votes.  It’s time establishment Republicans realized that the Tea Party isn’t a slice of the electorate that can be ignored in favor of the ephemeral “middle” – it’s the conservative base.

You know it’s shaping up to be a bad year for Democrats when the congressman most associated with pressuring banks to accelerate the growth in subprime mortgages says he hopes government mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are dead within a year.  House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) told CNBC host Lawrence Kudlow that he no longer supports “pushing lower-income people into housing they couldn’t afford…”

So what could be motivating Frank’s flip-flop?  Kudlow thinks it could be the rare example of a politician admitting his mistake.  I’m betting it has more to do with the rise of Sean Bielat as a serious contender to challenge Frank in the upcoming general election.

The same week Frank offered his mea culpa to Kudlow, Frank’s campaign staff circulated information that Bielat was formerly a registered Democrat before switching to the Republican Party.  The implication is that Bielat can’t be trusted because he switched parties.

But in an impressively worded explanation, Bielat manages to highlight his resume as a former House page, Marine and Harvard graduate, and why at each step along the way he was more and more conflicted with the Democrats’ liberal agenda.  There’s even a polite reminder that Ronald Reagan was once a Democrat until its leftward tilt helped him discover his inner conservative.

Frank is obviously concerned about Bielat’s appeal this year because of his line of attack on Bielat: Don’t vote for Sean; he used to be a Democrat.  Too bad for Barney, though, because he still is.

The recession is not getting better.  In a “snap” analysis by Reuters the following lowlights from the jobs front is not encouraging.

* Temporary jobs dropped by 5,600, reversing a streak of strong gains that economists had viewed as a hopeful sign that hiring would pick up.

* Normally, companies load up on temps at the beginning of a recovery when they are waiting for confirmation that growth is gaining momentum. This recovery has been unusual in that temporary hiring did not herald a jump in private hiring.

* Private hiring totaled a lackluster 71,000 in July, below expectations for 90,000 in a Reuters poll. June’s tally was revised down to just 31,000 from an initially reported 83,000.

* Government hiring was another worrisome sign. The loss of 202,000 positions reflected the loss of 143,000 temporary Census jobs.

* The total also included 38,000 jobs lost in local government. For most municipalities, the fiscal year began on July 1, and government associations have been warning that huge budget gaps would force aggressive job and spending cuts. July’s report suggests local governments got a quick start.

With the evidence mounting of a prolonged economic downturn, it’s time for someone – Republicans, Tea Parties, etc. – to start making the moral case against the liberal approach to (mis)managing the economy.  People are losing their ability to support themselves independently, making welfare a more attractive – and necessary – option for increasing numbers of middle class workers.  Not only is expanding the welfare state unsustainable, it harms the entrepreneurial spirit that makes economic recovery possible.

In order for America to get back to work, the incoming wave of office holders this November needs to remove the barriers to productivity that are killing employment growth.

That’s the question raised in four states after recent events suggest that state and local Democrat officials are backing several alleged Tea Party candidates.  According to a report by Politico, incidents in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Florida and Michigan are prompting calls for more scrutiny of third party challengers in tight races.

The accusations range from helping tea party activists circulate candidate petition sheets to underwriting the creation of official tea parties, which then put forth slates of candidates that local conservatives accuse of being rife with Democratic plants.

In all of the affected races, the outcome is expected to be close enough that a third-party candidate who wins just a few percentage points could end up swinging the outcome to the Democratic congressman or candidate.

So far, there is no direct evidence of an official Democrat-directed conspiracy to recruit and fund Tea Party candidates.  However, a third party spoiler strategy makes much more sense than the Democratic National Committee’s recent pledge to convince Americans that the Tea Party and GOP are one in the same.

Could this be another example of “government” working better at the local level?

Respected campaign prognosticator Charlie Cook is out this morning with an analysis of recent poll numbers that is sure to get Republican poobahs hitting their consultants’ speed dials.

For the four previous weeks, the two parties were tied at 46 percent on the generic ballot question. For the four weeks before that, Republicans averaged a 3-point lead, 48 percent to 45 percent. So, if Democrats really have turned up the heat and are running 4 or 5 points ahead among registered voters, the practical result would be about an even proposition among likely midterm voters and the national popular vote. If that were true, it would mean a very, very close contest for control of the House.

One of the obvious explanations for the “tie” in approval/disapproval for the two major parties is the public’s lack of faith in either the Democrats or Republicans to prioritize issues correctly and enact laws consistent with meeting those priorities.  Point in case is the economy.  Democrats continue to pass laws that keep the private sector on the defensive, while Republicans seem content to ride the voters’ frustration to victory.

People want an alternative to what’s going on in Washington, D.C. right now, and groups like Freedom Works are organizing massive demonstrations to make everyday Americans’ voices heard.  As CFIF Senior Fellow Troy Senik pointed out recently, if the GOP wants to break through the politics-as-usual noise it must adopt a program for governing that aligns with the country’s current mood.

There’s still time, but not much.

According to some economists, deflation is the biggest financial risk to the American economy.  In a nutshell, deflation means prices are decreasing, which is usually caused by merchants trying to stimulate declining demand by selling goods cheaper.  If the lower prices don’t sell, people get laid off, factories shut down and there is no joy in Mudville.

It turns out that many Republican Senate candidates are threatening their own version of deflation; part economic, part emotional.  Former presidential speechwriter Marc Thiessen shows that many of the favored GOP Senate challengers are, in fact, big spenders.   Mark Kirk (IL), Mike Castle (DE), Roy Blunt (MO) and John Hoeven (ND) – even one-time Tea Party darling Scott Brown (MA) – are all “vetted” politicians whose records predict senators who will be voting “Yes” when it comes to spending in the national interest.

In an election cycle where Tea Party-backed a candidate like Sharron Angle (R-NV) is being called “wacky” for daring to suggest Social Security should be privatized, it’s easy to overlook the fact that Republican control of the Senate may not have much effect on the chamber’s legislative output.

Nothing would deflate Tea Party aspirations more than a Republican Senate that could get more members to caucus with the likes of pro-stimulus, pro-financial reform Olympia Snowe (R-ME) rather than fiscal conservative stalwart Jim DeMint (R-SC).  If that happens, get ready for a third party bid that severely cripples the Republican brand.

In the video below Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) is out stumping for his Roadmap for America’s Future, a comprehensive reform plan that actually focuses on reforming existing government policies and programs; not creating new ones.  Early on he addresses the observation that politicians who put out detailed plans get criticized, and sometimes lose their jobs.  Ryan would rather take the chance that commonsense people are ready to have a real discussion about getting America’s fiscal house in order.

May the 2010 midterm elections bring more people like Paul Ryan to Congress.

Loyal readers may recall CFIF profiled then-candidate Charles Djou’s special election campaign for Hawaii’s first congressional district.  Since winning the seat in May Djou has gone from a hard-working underdog to a targeted incumbent working hard to get reelected in the heavily Democrat district.

During his two months in office, Djou voted against the Democrats’ overhaul of the financial industry, for the repeal of the military’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy and praised President Barack Obama on the floor of the House for pursuing a trade agreement with South Korea.

If Djou pulls out a win in November, he’ll continue the Aloha State’s history of not voting out an incumbent member of Congress.  Faced with the prospect of the alternative, conservatives everywhere should be praying for at least two more years of Charles Djou in Congress.

Fresh off revelations over his involvement in Sestak-gate, former president Bill Clinton pounded the podium yesterday in support of a fellow member of the Democratic Party’s endangered species: moderates.  Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is facing a tough run-off against the sitting Lt. Governor who is allied with a vast leftwing conspiracy to make an example out of the on again, off again liberal.

And Bill Clinton doesn’t like it.

Playing on both local pride and a wariness of outside influence, he suggested voters would be mere pawns for an agenda of party purification if they opposed Lincoln.

“If you want to be used that way, have at it,’ he said to about 200 Democrats at Philander Smith College, speaking without notes for 20 minutes

With a detailed recitation of Lincoln’s work on behalf of Arkansas down to the jobs she saved at a manufacturer in Ft. Smith, Clinton exhorted voters to not direct their discontent at her.

Good luck with that.  Of all the endangered political species this election cycle, none seems as likely for a population reduction than “moderate” Democrats.  Liberals, like conservatives, like politicians who take a consistent ideological stand for issues.  Too often being a “moderate” is just code for policymaking as situational ethics.  If Clinton fails to push Lincoln over the 50% mark, he’ll be on the hook for letting down yet another female senator seeking federal office (his wife Hillary being the other).  With Obama 0-for-3 in hotly contested races, that means Democrats running for reelection in 2010 will have to look to someone other than the two most recent Democratic presidents to gin up enough support to get a win on Election Day.

Is Jimmy Carter available?

H/T: Politico

Republican Charles Djou appears to be closing in on the special election victory CFIF highlighted months ago.  If he does become the congressman from President Barack Obama’s Hawaiian hometown, not only will the Aloha State be sending a staunch fiscal conservative to the House of Representatives, it will mean Djou will have the power of incumbency in the fall.  Assuming he wins, it will be interesting to see how he uses his voting record to maintain his conservative credentials while not alienating a majority of voters in a heavily Democratic district.

The May special election for the seat Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) vacated when he died in February is nearing its conclusion, setting itself up as a potential bellwether for the November 2010 midterm elections.  The main issue is spending.  Loyal readers will recall CFIF’s earlier commentary on the race; specifically the focus on Murtha’s legacy for creating jobs with pork barrel spending.

His former aide and Democratic hopeful Mark Critz continues to promise more of the same.  If elected, he’s promising to “keep important economic development initiatives moving forward.”  At some point, the district’s voters must realize that jobs funded by other peoples’ tax money aren’t free, or unlimited.  If Republican challenger Tim Burns can convince the people of Johnstown, PA, to vote for fiscal sanity, then Democrats nationwide are in for a world of hurt in November.

Bad news for political junkies — what could have been the title fight of the 2010 midterm elections in the U.S. Senate has been called off.

RedState reported this morning that conservative Indiana Congressman Mike Pence has decided against challenging moderate Democratic Senator Evan Bayh for his seat this year.

No doubt that it would have been an uphill fight. Bayh comes from an extremely popular political family in the Hoosier State, and his own career as a centrist governor-cum-senator has endeared him to his electorate. He’s also towards the bottom of the list of Democrats in the Senate who are threatening to conservative principles (and one of the few who sees the folly in the liberal thrust of the current Democratic leadership).

Yet the fact of the matter was that Pence was outpolling Bayh (albeit narrowly) without so much as announcing. Pence’s victory could have gone a long way towards driving a total electoral scramble in November.

Hopefully, the talented, able, articulate Pence goes back to the grindstone in the House. If he’s passing up the Senate race to take a crack at the White House (as RedState suggests he may be), he’s trading the improbable for the virtually impossible. Only one sitting U.S. Representative has ever been elected to the presidency — and Washington isn’t exactly brimming with people looking to replicate James Garfield’s legacy.